Updated 8:53 a.m.: Many unknowns making specific impact hard to predict
The National Weather Service says severe thunderstorms are possible across much of central and southern Oklahoma Friday, with an increasing risk of tornadoes.
They’re most likely between 4 and 11 p.m. along the Red River in an area stretching from Ardmore to Durant.
Meteorologists say they're still uncertain how unstable an airmass ahead of a dryilne will be, but that wind shear will be sufficient for the development of supercells. They also don't how exactly how much moisture will be in the atmosphere this afternoon.
848am - Depending on exactly how all these pieces line up, we could see dangerous storms, or we could get by with not much at all. (con'd)
— NWS Norman (@NWSNorman) April 24, 2015
850am - what this all means for you: forecast will change several times between now and 3pm. Any risk area/color means pay attention!
— NWS Norman (@NWSNorman) April 24, 2015
Original Post
National Weather Service meteorologist Jonathan Kurtz says storms will likely develop along a dry line pushing toward the Interstate 35 corridor by mid-afternoon.
“Initial thoughts are storms will have the best opportunity to develop across north-central Oklahoma from around north of Oklahoma City to Stillwater to Ponca City,” Kurtz said. “Large destructive hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, along with the possibility of tornadoes.”
Storms moved across north Texas and the very southern edge of Oklahoma early Friday morning. Those storms should gradually move northeast through the afternoon. The greatest severe weather threat will develop through the afternoon, hitting Interstate 35 and the Oklahoma City metro by 7 p.m.
There could only be a handful of storms, but any that develop are likely to be severe. Kurtz says Norman Forecast Office meteorologists are monitoring three main factors to determine the likelihood of severe weather – the location of the dry line, humidity, and atmospheric instability.
“The higher the dew points, which measure the amount of moisture in the air, the more likely severe storms will be,” Kurtz said. “If we see dew points in the 60s east of the dry line when storms are developing, this could lead to an increased risk of significant storms.”
Cloud cover could also limit the development of severe storms if temperatures aren’t able to rise through the course of the day.
There’s also a slight risk for severe storms Sunday evening, and a weekend of mostly clear skies and warm temperatures.
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