TRANSCRIPT
Dick Pryor: This is Capitol Insider - taking you inside politics, policy and government in Oklahoma. I'm Dick Pryor with Quorum Call publisher Shawn Ashley. Our guest is Michael Crespin, Director and Curator of the Carl Albert Congressional Research and Study Center and professor of political science at the University of Oklahoma. Welcome back to Capitol Insider.
Michael Crespin: Thanks for having me again.
Shawn Ashley: Michael, in the last couple of weeks, we've seen an assassination attempt directed at a former president and presidential candidate, a sitting president dropped out of his reelection campaign, and a vice president rapidly ascending to be the nominee-designate of that president's party. It's been a whirlwind. Historically speaking, have we ever seen anything like this before?
Michael Crespin: I think all these events happening in what is essentially a month is unprecedented. So, we have seen assassination attempts on candidates before. We've had incumbent presidential looking like to be the nominees drop out before, you know, thinking about LBJ, and actually, there's Truman, and maybe some others historically has happened, but not all of this happening in such a short timeline.
Dick Pryor: In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson dropped out of the race in March. Bobby Kennedy got in the race and then was assassinated. And the Democratic Party had one of history's most contentious political conventions, in Chicago. Those circumstances seem eerily like this year. Michael, do you see the national political environment now being similar or different than in that tumultuous year, 1968?
Michael Crespin: You know, I think in some ways it's similar. You know, look like there were disagreements in the Democratic Party about who the nominee should be. Although now that party has come together. We don't see, I don't think, amongst the general public, the political violence, perhaps, that we saw in 1968. Now, of course, we do see the violence, with the assassination attempt of on, former President Trump. So, some of the elements, I think, are certainly there. I would say I think the parties have learned from the history. So, the Democratic Party very quickly coalesced around Vice President Harris as potentially to be the new nominee. And then the Republicans during the convention were also very united, in ways that perhaps we haven't seen that previously.
Shawn Ashley: In this country. We tend to have perpetual campaigns, but that's not the case in some countries where elections can be called and held within a few months. What challenges will Vice President Harris and former President Trump face in the 100-day sprint to the general election?
Michael Crespin: Sure, yeah. You know, other countries, England, or the UK might have a six, six week election. It's considered a long election. I worked on one as a college student, and everyone thought it was really long. So, what do the parties have to do or the candidates have to do? I think Vice President Harris will have to get a campaign together. A team. Now, she's going to take a lot of President Biden's team and probably stick with them. It's probably too late to start over. Now, actually, I think the head of Biden's campaign had worked for Harris previously, so I think there is a connection there. Both candidates will have to raise money. The Democrats raised, I think, over $100 million in about a 24-hour period. The money will be there. You know, it always comes in. Now, I think the Republicans and former President Trump have to now switch gears and, you know, define Vice President Harris. Right? Their whole campaign was set off against Biden. And now they're going to have to change and, you know, maybe find some new angles of attack.
Dick Pryor: Both parties have framed this election as one to define the future of the United States. It also could have a significant down ballot effect on who controls Congress and ultimately, the direction of the Supreme Court. Every election matters. But do you see this one truly being that monumental?
Michael Crespin: You know, I think the balance of the Supreme Court could potentially be the most important and long, long lasting, of this election. So, if President Trump is to win and the Republicans gain control of the Senate, which looks likely, I think no matter who's at who wins the presidency, he might be able to appoint additional people to the bench and then get them confirmed. If Harris wins the election, might also be able to make nominees. I think it would be difficult for the Republicans to not, approve a choice. Now, they could have more say in a choice. They could say no and have Harris come back with another one. But the balance of the court, not the balance, but having additional Republican nominees could swing the balance even more in favor of conservatives.
Shawn Ashley: We know Republicans will hold the majority in the state legislature after this year's elections. But could these recent events influence the balance of power in Oklahoma.
Michael Crespin: You know, I don't think it's going to influence Oklahoma all that much. You know, thinking about the state House and Senate, you know, those are, I think, going to maintain control by the Republicans and probably maintain the supermajority. We had some interesting leadership elections where the incoming President Pro Tem of the Senate lost in a primary, although it looks like, you know, there's a new winner there. I don't see big changes in Oklahoma for 2024.
Dick Pryor: Michael Crespin, Director and Curator of the Carl Albert Congressional Research and Studies Center and professor of political science at the University of Oklahoma. Thanks for joining us.
Michael Crespin: Thanks for having me.
Dick Pryor: And that's Capitol Insider. Until next time, with Shawn Ashley, I'm Dick Pryor.
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