SNAP has been an urgent topic of conversation at the Oklahoma Capitol lately.
During a Senate Human Services budget hearing early this month, Oklahoma Human Services Director Jeffrey Cartmell told lawmakers what the federal mandates mean for his agency.
"What historically has been a 50-50 split between the state and the federal government, beginning in October of this year, will move to a 75-25 split," Cartmell said. "That is reflected in our budget request number for an additional $25.5 million to administer the program."
But that's just a baseline annual increase. Cartmell says the more significant, long-term impact on the state is based on meeting the required administrative error rate set by Congress.
"If the agency fails to get the error rate down below 10% by FY 2028-29, we'll be looking at upwards of $250 million in additional state dollars necessary to administer the program," he said. "I've told our team, since July, that the answer is to be below 6%."
Oklahoma's SNAP administration error rate is at about 11%.
The error rate represents over- and underpayments to people receiving government food stipends over the course of a fiscal year. About 685,000 Oklahomans are SNAP recipients, representing 17% of the state's population, all of whom must update their paperwork every one to two years.
Some politicians incorrectly conflate the error rate with waste, fraud and abuse. But Sen. Paul Rosino, R-Oklahoma City, says that's not accurate.
"I want to be clear when I say this: the error rate — people in this building, especially, believe — that it's all about fraud, waste and abuse," Rosino said. "And it's not. It's mostly administrative, whether it's on the client side or whether it's on the DHS side."
Rosino chairs the Senate Health and Human Services Subcommittee. He says the error rate stems from incorrectly entered information in applications, from slow, outdated technology and from the Department of Human Services' lack of follow-up when things change.
Rep. Daniel Pae, R-Lawton, chairs the House A&B Human Services Subcommittee. He said there are plenty of reasons for a mistake.
"If you change your home address… but that's not modified on your benefits application, or if you find a different job and your income threshold changes," Pae said.
But he also put the blame for high error rates on people receiving benefits, rather than the state agency that makes the determinations to pay those benefits out or not.
"Most of it is because of the individual not updating the application in those examples I gave, and in other instances, too, more so than the system itself," Pae said. "Of course, there are ways to make the system even more user-friendly, even more efficient. I think that's what DHS is focused on."
Pae said he's not running any specific legislation to tackle the issue because there are already so many proposals addressing the federal mandates in some way. As chair of his committee, he said, he's waiting to see how late-game proposals are shaped into a solution within the constraints of the state budget.
Legislature examines restricting SNAP benefits for non-citizens
House Speaker Kyle Hilbert is looking to tackle the issue by conflating it with immigration enforcement, an idea he said during a Feb. 12 press conference came directly at the behest of the Trump administration, which he communicates with via a "contact" at the White House.
"House Bill 4422 and House Bill 4423, those were from conversations I had with the Trump administration," Hilbert said.
The measures initially required state agencies administering SNAP and Medicaid to verify applicants' citizenship and report those without legal immigration status directly to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
They've since been amended to first direct that such migrants be reported to the state attorney general's office, which will review each case and decide whether to notify ICE.
And at an earlier press conference, the House speaker said his initial intent was to target the people managing the EBT cards that carry tax dollars, which he says are meant only for U.S. Citizens.
But that route, he said, was ripe for lawsuits because it included parents in the country unlawfully receiving benefits for the U.S.-born children. He said the amendment makes for a "much cleaner" bill.
"I don't want to say that House Bill 4422 is the solution to getting the error rate down," Hilbert said. "I'm saying it can be part of the solution. Ultimately, it's going to be the Department of Human Services overseeing and ensuring that the error rate gets down."
The costs of a high SNAP error rate
If Oklahoma can't lower its error rate by the close of the 2026 federal fiscal year this October, its penalties will be based on whatever rate it achieves by then. And based on where it is now, at nearly 11%, Cartmell said that could very well mean hundreds of millions in extra costs as soon as FY 28.
But Cartmell said at the Senate budget hearing that he has a plan in action to hit the 6% target required by the federal government to keep Oklahoma's share of SNAP costs at a minimum.
"The first and foremost thing that we did was in August, we rolled out an entirely new training process for our staff," he said. "The other thing that we implemented in September was a process to pre-read the cases that are most likely to have errors."
Cartmell said those cases include any that total more than $800 in food assistance payouts, and instances in which beneficiaries have been approved for a job within the last year.
Rosino says states need more time to figure out how to lower the rates. In January, he was invited to speak for a coalition of bipartisan organizations led by the National Conference of State Legislatures. Also among the organizations was the National Governors Association, chaired by Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt.
"And that's what I tried to talk to Congress about was say, 'hey, you know, you're pushing this on us, but do you understand what the economic impact is going to be?'" He said.
The coalition sent a letter to Congress, requesting an extension of the timeline for the new costs to take effect until 2030. States have not gotten the extra time from Congress, and Rosino says there is no indication it will be granted.
During his annual State of the State speech this month, Stitt blamed the federal government for failing to manage its finances and encourage low-income Americans to depend on welfare.
"Where I have the authority, I'll rein in welfare spending," Stitt said. "Government dependency is a trap. It robs self-reliance, and it balloons budgets. I always say government programs should be a trampoline, not a hammock."
Days before his speech kicking off this year's legislative session, Stitt released an executive order mandating state agencies in charge of federal benefits to audit their administrative error rates, fraud protocols and so-called disincentives to work, like benefit cliffs – sudden decreases in public benefits when recipients see a small bump in their income. The move has food advocates worried that Stitt has his eye on the wrong ball.
State agencies have requested $13.5 billion in appropriations this year, according to the latest House and Senate budget estimates, and many are accepting flat budgets, which, with rising costs, amount to cuts.
At an estimated $12.1 billion in available spending, lawmakers are about a $1.5 billion short of that request, not counting the SNAP dilemma.
But, no matter who is at fault, Rosino says failure is not an option here.
"Our state cannot afford not to do this right because we don't have those kind of funds," Rosino said. "I mean, we're already talking about having a budget shortfall this year."
