TRANSCRIPT
LAYDEN: Gary, to the month last year, we talked about how La Niña is officially here. Then I see headlines from October: “La Niña is here.” Where are we at in this cycle and with La Niña, and what does it mean for us?
MCMANUS: Still in a weak La Niña. It’s a cooling of the waters in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of the west coast of South America. And when that changes the air circulations down in that region of the world, it changes the circulations all across the world. For us it pushes that storm track farther to the north. And so it means, in general, during the cool season — which it’s a cool season phenomenon — it can mean warmer than normal conditions and drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States, including Oklahoma. It’s certainly not a given that that’s going to occur, but you know, if you look at what’s happened over the last few months, that’s exactly what’s happening across Oklahoma and other parts of the south.
LAYDEN: It seems La Niña has been in place for a while here. Do you see any indications about when that’s going to turn over? It’s La Niña versus El Niño versus neutral conditions. Do we know what’s coming in 2026? What do you expect?
MCMANUS: If you look at the January through March period the La Niña is expected to revert back to neutral conditions, which it almost always does. Whether it’s El Niño or La Niña, it does always revert back to neutral conditions as the temperature differences start to disappear down there in the equatorial Pacific. Some of the impact from La Niña — which again, warmer than normal and drier than normal conditions — can sort of extend into spring. A little bit of momentum. Now past that, it’s very difficult to forecast past the spring. Nine, ten months from now into the cool season of 2026-27 El Niño is favored as we get into the next cool season. Way, way far ahead. Much too early to say for sure though.
LAYDEN: If that happens — if we do have El Niño as we get into the cool season in late 2026 — what does that mean? Wetter and colder as opposed to drier and warmer?
MCMANUS: Exactly. That does tilt the odds. Like I said, it doesn’t mean a guarantee, but it does tilt the odds towards cooler than normal and wetter than normal conditions. Again, during the cool season. So we’re talking mid fall through mid spring or so. And the strength also matters. If we get a weak El Niño, our data here at the Oklahoma Climate Survey shows that we might have drier than normal conditions. So the strength of the El Niño would matter. You know, you get into the strong El Niños or the super strong El Niños like we had in 2015, then you can get those wetter than normal conditions. But it’s something, again, so far away we’ll just have to keep our eye on it as we get farther and farther into the year.
LAYDEN: On the shorter term. Drought. We had some rain, and tornadoes, earlier this month. And of course winter weather is coming. Still, drought is prevalent in parts of the state.
MCMANUS: Still bullish on drought until we see those conditions really start to change into a more favorable rainy pattern. There’s not much down the road that we’re looking at to see at least greatly above normal rainfall conditions, which is what we need to relieve that drought, really, across the southern half of the state. Unfortunately it’s a waiting game. So until I see that rainy pattern really start to take hold — or even a really good snow or ice pattern, it can come in any form in Oklahoma. That’s obvious — I’m afraid the drought is here to stay for a while.
LAYDEN: Well you don’t have a crystal ball, but I appreciate you taking a few minutes to talk to me about it.
MCMANUS: You bet.
LAYDEN: That’s State Climatologist Gary McManus talking about best educated guesses for the weather in 2026. For StateImpact, I’m Logan Layden.
StateImpact Oklahoma is a partnership of Oklahoma’s public radio stations which relies on contributions from readers and listeners to fulfill its mission of public service to Oklahoma and beyond. Donate online.
