A single poll of likely voters shows former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 16 percentage points in Oklahoma.
While still a commanding lead, Trump won Oklahoma over Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 30 points; he captured all of Oklahoma's 77 counties.
The poll is the only one of its kind so far conducted and was performed in late August by "independent, non-partisan" SoonerPoll through a survey of 323 likely Oklahoma voters.
Newsweek reported that Trump’s lead in other solidly Republican states has been cut in the lead-up to this year’s election.
Party leaders in Oklahoma shared their thoughts with KWGS, the NPR-member station in Tulsa.
Oklahoma Democratic Chair Party Alicia Andrews believes the difference in Trump’s popularity between now and 2020 is due to more moderate voters in the state.
“I believe that Oklahomans, in general, aren’t super extreme,” Andrews said. “After what happened on January 6th, 2021, I know a lot of registered Republicans had a moment of reflection.”
Andrews also said the enthusiasm for Harris compared to Joe Biden in 2020 is “dramatically different.”
Oklahoma Republican Party Executive Director Stan Stevens, however, doesn’t think the polling numbers are accurate.
“It’s highly likely that President Trump is underpolling,” Stevens said. “A lot of Republicans don’t care to participate in polls.”
Stevens said many Republican voters have “fatigue” from polls and media attention surrounding the former President.
In 2022, data from SoonerPoll showed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Joy Hofmeister leading Kevin Stitt. Stitt, however, ultimately won reelection.
SoonerPoll did not respond to a request for an interview.
This report was produced by the Oklahoma Public Media Exchange, a collaboration of public media organizations. Help support collaborative journalism by donating at the link at the top of this webpage.
