As the first week of Oklahoma's legislative session closed, leadership in both chambers held the first of many weekly press conferences. With thousands of bills filed and federal funding cuts looming, a budget shortfall is one top concern shared across party lines.
It's still early in the legislative session, but House and Senate leadership are already worried over a possible state budget shortfall this year.
Senate Pro Tem Lonnie Paxton, R-Tuttle, said during his weekly press conference that he's optimistic for now, but wary of the long-term.
"Are things going to be tighter? Absolutely," Paxton said. "But we do have money in the bank. We are able to sustain this."
When the State Board of Equalization last met in December, it estimated a preliminary total budget of $12 billion available for state agency appropriation. That's around $650 million less than last year and $1.6 billion below what state agencies have asked for going into the next fiscal year, according to the House Budget Portal.
Among the anticipated costs are substantial proposed investments in early childhood literacy and child care access, mental health services, water infrastructure, and more. Tacked on top of local spending needs are new costs related to administering federal welfare programs, like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which could amount to around $1 billion.
Governor Kevin Stitt's latest executive budget projects Oklahoma will have around $4 billion in reserves and surplus revenue at the end of the fiscal year in June. That includes amounts from six different state savings accounts, including the rainy day and revenue stabilization funds.
"Our main deal is we could pull money out of savings and cover everything that we're talking about," Paxton said. "But then what do we do next year? The next year? We have to fundamentally change how we're doing some of these things."
Democrats also worry state savings won't be enough. House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson said during her own Thursday press conference that federal cuts are adding to the crunch.
"If we want to stay out of a deficit … you know, once these cuts actually happen from the federal government, the state is going to have to look at where cuts are going to have to be made to other agencies," Munson said.
Munson's counterpart in the Senate, Minority Leader Julia Kirt, D-Oklahoma City, also expressed concern about the budget outlook. Specifically, Kirt questioned how lawmakers are supposed to balance the needs of Oklahomans and the wishes of Governor Kevin Stitt, who is again calling for flat budgets, tax reductions and increased spending in some places.
The cost of housing, food, and other basic expenses keeps rising for Oklahomans, Kirt said, and Stitt keeps calling for less money for the agencies meant to help residents soften the impact.
During his State of the State address, Stitt called to cap recurring revenue increases for state agencies at 3% year over year. He also said he wants to freeze property tax hikes for seniors.
"I think we've seen artificial restraints on budgets for years while inflation grows," Kirt said. "And I don't think we've yet invested what we need to… that's going to actually reduce our costs."
House Speaker Kyle Hilbert, R-Bristow, shared many of the same concerns as his colleagues over how the budget will turn out. But, like Paxton in the Senate, Hilbert is still hopeful..
"I think I don't want to get out ahead of the appropriations team and what the final budget would look like, because … the Board of Equalization has not met yet to give us final numbers," Hilbert said. "So it's hard to project what exactly that number would be. I would anticipate something mirroring close to a flat budget is probably close to where we will end up."
Since session began Monday, one measure carried over from last year has already passed the Senate floor and been sent to Stitt for his signature. Dozens more have made it through their first round of committee hearings.
And many have dollar amounts attached.
