TRANSCRIPT
Dick Pryor: This is Capitol Insider - taking you inside politics, policy, and government in Oklahoma. I'm Dick Pryor with Quorum Call publisher, Shawn Ashley. Our guest is James Davenport, professor of political science and the director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Rose State College. Thank you for joining us.
Shawn Ashley: Professor Davenport, we are just past Labor Day, which is generally the time when fall political campaigns accelerate. And in just under a year, the next statewide election in Oklahoma and the national midterms will be in full swing. What's your sense of the political climate one year out?
James Davenport: That's really hard to predict on a couple of levels. If we're looking at the state, we have several offices that are obviously going to become open, the most widely recognized being the governor. We have at least two or three candidates that have announced. Attorney General Drummond seems to have a sizable lead so far, at least in early polling. But this is, as you mentioned, a year out, and a lot can happen when advertisement starts flying and third-party groups get into the mix as well. So, we will see how that holds.
Dick Pryor: There are numerous disruptions in traditional institutions these days, including our elections. A lot of norms are being challenged, and it's happening quickly. Do you think these disruptions, in governance and our political ecosystem, will fundamentally change the way state and federal government and the courts operate?
James Davenport: They could. Now, a lot depends on how these institutions react to some of the challenges that they're facing. Obviously, a lot has been thrown into the court's responsibility of late, with several cases arising out of actions taken by the Trump administration. Whether or not the courts continue to be either resistant to some of these or they become more inclined to let those pass will greatly, I think, impact the future of how these institutions operate. What people don't understand, a lot of times is Congress holds the balance of power amongst the three branches. But if it refuses to exercise the power that it holds that lets these other two branches kind of have their way, and so right now what you see is rather than Congress coming in and asserting real authority, you see it stepping back and now you've had this kind of contention between the executive branch and the judicial branch. How that plays out, I'm not sure as of yet, but it certainly will impact the future operations and functionings of these institutions.
Shawn Ashley: There's been a trend over the last several years to elect, appoint and hire people based more on ideology and loyalty than qualifications. What impact is that having on how our government works?
James Davenport: At the upper levels of government, when you look at either, you know, like a presidential cabinet or even a governor's cabinet, although those folks are not as prominent, those positions have regularly been doled out to individuals who gained those positions because of their either loyalty to the chief executive or their service to them in the campaign, these kinds of things. Now, you do have some positions that actual qualifications seem to have more bearance on. Positions such as the Secretary of State, or Secretary of Defense, or the Treasury, some of these upper-tier cabinet positions. You're going to have trouble there.
But where this really becomes problematic is not at that level, which is always going to be somewhat partisan and loyalty based. It's at the levels underneath there where you have civil service employees who we're seeing being more threatened if they do not comply with the desires and dictates of the chief executive and their immediate subordinates. And we kind of went through this back in the 1800s. And what we ended up getting was a civil service that was largely incompetent, and jobs and benefits were doled out based on loyalty to the party in power. And so, I had thought we had learned that that was not a great way of doing things, but it seems like you're right, that there might be trend in eking out some more civil service type employees in favor of more partisan loyalists, and that's troubling simply because of the competence needed for many of these positions.
Dick Pryor: Some states, notably Texas and California, are taking unprecedented steps to redistrict congressional seats now rather than waiting until after the next census, which has been the national norm, to gain political advantage. There's also upheaval in the administration of elections in various states. What will these disturbances to the general order of elections mean to the stability and integrity of our elections in 2026?
James Davenport: It's hard to imagine a scenario in which after every election cycle, we're going to redistrict so the party in power in one state or another can eke out advantages in the elections. That kind of destabilizes that election process in the sense that voters now might not know who is exactly responsible for representing their interest in Congress. It can also disincentivize voting because voters become less aware, less connected to the representatives that they have been historically used to voting for. Changes in the voting laws can also have a dramatic impact on the decision to vote. Making it easier to vote obviously is a way to get more people to show up at the polls. Throwing obstructions into the mix can disincentivize voters from turning out. And what we see right now is this kind of effort on both fronts that could very well discourage people from taking up and voting in the future, which does not bode well for the representative nature of the people who get elected.
Shawn Ashley: Do you see the national partisan political environment affecting Oklahoma's elections one year from now in 2026?
James Davenport: Yes and no. Oklahoma is overwhelmingly Republican, both its elected officials and voter registration, and so it is unlikely that that is going to change next year. Could Democrats make some inroads? Possibly. But it's hard to see exactly where this far out. Perhaps on the state level, they might have a shot if the current superintendent of public instruction runs for governor. They might have shot at that seat. But it's very difficult for Democrats in Oklahoma right now to gain traction. Much of that is, quite frankly, due to voters' minds, especially in the rural areas of the states, connecting what those voters see as more radical perspectives of the national Democrat Party and foisting those onto Democrats in the state, which may or may not hold those types of views. And so, until Democrats find a way to work around that, they're going to consistently be at a disadvantage here in Oklahoma.
Dick Pryor: Is there any particular thing that you might look at, a barometer, for the political climate and the elections one year from now?
James Davenport: I think voter registration is a good place to start, and interestingly enough, the New York Times just came out with an analysis showing how registered Democrat voters have declined in every state that tracks voter registration by party, regardless of whether that state has a Republican majority or a Democrat majority, and we have continued to see in Oklahoma Democrat voter registration decline as a percentage of overall voters. And so, if we see that trend halt or maybe reverse a little bit, it might give an indication that something might happen in next year's elections. If that trend continues, I don't know that we're going to see at the state level a huge impact on the outcomes that are going to occur next year, at least in relation to seeing Democrats maybe gain more seats in the state legislature or one or two statewide offices.
Nationally speaking, that trend could be play out in a way similar to Joe Biden's midterm elections in 2022, where historically, the president in power, their party loses seats dramatically in Congress, and his, although it did, it was very narrow. If we see this registration trend continue nationally, the gains that Democrats might make next year might be lessened as a result of that. So, to me, that's a bellwether kind of statistic to watch to see if we can learn what might happen over the next year.
Dick Pryor: James Davenport, professor of political science and the director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Rose State College, thank you for joining us.
James Davenport: Thank you. It's my pleasure.
Dick Pryor: For more information, go to quorumcall.online. You can find video of Capitol Insider segments on the KGOU YouTube channel. Audio and transcripts are at kgou.org. And look for Capitol Insiders where you get podcasts. Until next time, with Shawn Ashley, I'm Dick Pryor.
KGOU produces journalism in the public interest, which is critical to an informed electorate. Listeners like you provide essential funding for Capitol Insider. Make your contribution at KGOU.org.
