TRANSCRIPT
Dick Pryor: This is Capitol Insider – taking you inside politics, policy, and government in Oklahoma. I’m Dick Pryor with Quorum Call publisher Shawn Ashley. And our guest is Dr. Allyson Shortle, Professor and the Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Political Science at the University of Oklahoma. Dr. Shortle, thank you for being with us.
Dr. Allyson Shortle: Thanks, Dick.
Shawn Ashley: Dr. Shortle, the Cook Political Report has moved the Oklahoma gubernatorial race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Mike Mazzei is still the favorite, but does that shift suggest Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson may have a path to victory?
Dr. Allyson Shortle: This is complicated question because while we certainly see enthusiasm from Cyndi Munson's campaign and voters really lining up to want to vote for her, particularly in her campaigning in rural areas of Oklahoma, which she's done a phenomenal job, it's a mountain to climb in Oklahoma for a Democratic candidate to win the governorship. This is not super likely, I would say.
What we should be looking at are the margins here. Typically, we would see a governor win by a large margin. I think because of the enthusiasm sparked by Cyndi Munson's campaign, in addition to some of the conflicts that the Republican voters in the state had towards Mike Mazzei in his campaign against Gentner Drummond, I think we are going to see tighter margins than we've seen in the past. However, I do fully expect that Republicans in the state will mobilize and vote for that Republican option.
Remember, the vast majority of voters in this state are Republican and if any past elections tell us what behavior will look like, Republicans tend to turn out to elections in larger numbers than Democrats in this state. I would be surprised even if Democrats turned out at higher rates if Cyndi Munson would be able to pull this off. Then again, stranger things have happened.
Dick Pryor: How do you evaluate the advertising and messaging we've seen from the gubernatorial candidates this year and the possible effect on voters?
Dr. Allison Shortle Well, I do think where Cyndi Munson's campaign has sort of struck a chord with Oklahoma voters is in her message about affordability. And this is something that all Americans are feeling and certainly all Oklahomans care about right now. So, I can see where there is a lot of positive messaging around that sort of common-sense language used to talk to the voters. I think on the flip side, Mazzei really emphasizes tax cuts and things that Oklahoma voters want to hear typically, especially in a big red Republican state as ours.
Shawn Ashley: Other than governor, are there any races or trends that you will be paying attention to in Oklahoma this election?
Dr. Allyson Shortle: Well, I myself run a couple of exit polls, as you know, in the state. I take my students out in both Norman, Oklahoma, as well as Oklahoma City. And where I really want to collect data is in the suburbs. The reason why is most of the demographic shifts we're seeing in terms of changes in voting behavior, uh, happen in the suburbs, largely across America. So, I'm going to be looking at Oklahoma City's suburbs, specifically at the northwest. I'm very interested in what's going to happen in Edmond.
I'm very interested also in what is going to happen in Norman as basically a suburb of Oklahoma City. So those are some of the trends that I'm going to be paying the most attention to because over the past several years, that is where shifts have been happening. Those highly educated suburban voters, are they becoming more liberal in their voting patterns? That's what I want to know.
Dick Pryor: What do you expect turnout to look like in Oklahoma?
Dr. Allyson Shortle: Well, I do expect it to be a pretty good turnout for Oklahoma. The sad story is that we are historically very low on turnout, both in midterm and presidential elections, registering one of the lowest turnout rates in the U.S., and it really doesn't matter what election you're looking at. I hope that people will turn out to vote. I think they have more reason to think that this might be a competitive race, especially for the governor role here.
Typically, during a presidential election, most states will see higher levels of turnout, and the midterm elections turnout will be about 15 to 20% less. That's not true of Oklahoma. We are just about, I'd say, in a presidential election, 50% turnout, in a midterm election, 45. So, they're really dismal rates of turnout in our state in particular, partly because a lot of voters don't see our races as competitive. We think they're foregone conclusions.
I do hope that at least with this particular election cycle and Americans’ and Oklahomans’ attitudes about the economy as well as their current elected officials being in question, people will come out to vote to have their voices heard in hopefully record numbers. I always hope that they're going to be rising record numbers in Oklahoma. So, let's all cross our fingers that we're going have great turnout this election.
Shawn Ashley: Nationally, there are signs Republicans are facing an uphill battle this year and that President Trump may be a drag on Republicans in some parts of the country. Do you have any reason to think Oklahoma races may be affected by his low approval ratings?
Dr. Allyson Shortle: I do and I don’t. It's standard practice that down ballot races tend to be affected by presidential approval, and we know that Donald Trump's presidential approval rating is very low right now, it’s historically low across all of his administrative terms. What that does is it puts Republican incumbents at risk, and it puts a lot of Republican candidates at risk of getting lower turnout from Republicans. So, we're not talking about Republicans voting for Democrats, but where Republicans should be worried is, you know, is someone going to punish a Republican incumbent for acting too much like Trump or having supported Trump where they're really displeased with Trump's policymaking? This is completely possible, but mainly through demobilization, not as much voting for the Democratic opponent. We rarely see that happening.
Dick Pryor: I think it's fair to say that these are difficult times for research. How much stock do you think we should place in polling and those rankings?
Dr. Allyson Shortle: I think it's incredibly hard to use them for any predictive value. And I would caution anyone to sort of look at those polls and think that you will absolutely know who's gonna win. That being said, on the national level, there are some polls that do quite well and continue to do well. I think Verasight sort of stands out nationally in terms of being able to predict a good majority of the races on the national level.
We don't have great polling at the local level. Quite frankly, because it's very expensive. And a lot of our polling in the state in particular tends to be used by candidates, so we lack a lot independent polls. For that reason, if there is a poll that comes out, it tends to get published regardless of the quality of that poll. So, we should all hesitate before really taking seriously what one poll tells us. And I would just ask everybody to exercise caution. Unless you really look at what sort of macro level factors are affecting the vote. You should always put it into context and know that unless you have a significant amount of polling, you should not take those numbers too seriously.
Shawn Ashley: What national race or races will you be watching to gauge the mood of the electorate?
Dr. Allyson Shortle: The mood of the electorate to me comes down, as I've said before, to the suburbs. If Cyndi Munson is going to really tighten up those margins in Norman, then I think that is meaningfully a sign that she's probably gonna do well statewide. Nationally as well. I think if you look at where the suburbs are going, you're gonna see at least how behavior is changing throughout time. Those are a lot of swing voters, people who are, you know, might vote for a Democrat one year and a Republican the next. And we don't have many more populations like that since people are so polarized into camps. But where those people are located tend to be the suburbs right now in American politics. So that again is gonna be where I'm gonna look.
Dick Pryor: You and your students will be monitoring voter attitudes on Election Day. What are you focusing on?
Dr. Allyson Shortle: We have a few exciting issues that my students have come up with that they care a lot about. I'm also working with a local Girl Scout troop, really interested in analyzing childhood hunger. So, we are gonna be looking at the issue of childhood hunger, seeing what people wanna do about it, but really if they think it's a problem worth focusing on.
My own students are fascinated with the campaigns and exactly what impact those had. So, we are gonna be asking whether any particular campaigns drove people to the polls because of enthusiasm that was sparked by a positive message, or if people are driven to the polls because they're particularly angry at certain campaign messages that they've heard. And then we also have a lot of interest in what Oklahomans are feeling about data center construction.
Dick Pryor: That's Dr. Allyson Shortle, Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Political Science at the University of Oklahoma. And always, thank you for visiting with us.
Dr. Allyson Shortle: Thanks for having me.
Dick Pryor: And for more information, go to quorumcall.online. You can find video of Capitol Insider segments on the KGOU You Tube channel. Audio and transcripts are at kgou.org. And look for Capitol Insider where you get podcasts. Until next time, with Shawn Ashley, I'm Dick Pryor.
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