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After a wave of horrific shootings, gun violence trends put recent attacks in context

Crime scene tape blows in the wind as rain begins to fall outside Evergreen High School in Colorado on Sept. 11.
RJ Sangosti
/
MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images
Crime scene tape blows in the wind as rain begins to fall outside Evergreen High School in Colorado on Sept. 11.

On a visceral level, it feels far too common.

A week ago, conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at a college in Utah. That same day, a student opened fire at a Colorado high school, critically wounding two peers. Just two weeks earlier, a mass shooting at a Minnesota Catholic church killed two children and injured 21 others.

Once again, a series of horrific, high-profile shootings has gripped the country and brought national focus to the issue of gun violence, especially as it relates to school safety and politically motivated attacks.

NPR spoke with experts on mass shootings, political violence and school attacks about the data, trends and context to better understand this moment.

Here's what to know.

Are mass shootings becoming more frequent? 

There's no universal definition for a mass shooting, so data can vary based on the number of victims killed or injured, where the shooting took place, and whether it was related to gang activity or terrorism.

For example, the Regional Gun Violence Research Consortium at the Rockefeller Institute of Government, a nonpartisan think tank, only tracks shootings that occur in public or populated places, involve at least two victims (injured or killed), and excludes incidents related to gang violence or terrorist activity. By its definition, there have been 12 mass shootings in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Gun Violence Archive — which counts all instances in which four or more people were shot (injuries and deaths), not including the shooter, and regardless of location — reported over 300 mass shootings this year.

Still, by most standards, mass shootings are more frequent now than they were 50 years ago, according to Garen Wintemute, director of the  Centers for Violence Prevention at the University of California, Davis. At the same time, mass shooting deaths represent only a tiny fraction of people killed by gun violence. Wintemute said that most also don't resemble the attacks that dominate national headlines.

" Most mass shootings are not events that generate a lot of publicity," he said. " Most mass shootings have some connection to domestic violence."

Everytown for Gun Safety, an advocacy group that uses data from the Gun Violence Archive, found that in 46% of mass shootings from 2015 through 2022, "the perpetrator shot a current or former intimate partner or family member."

What about school shootings?

Gun-related incidents on school grounds have surged since the pandemic, according to David Riedman, a researcher who tracks all cases in which a gun is fired, brandished or in which a bullet hits K-12 school property. His K-12 School Shooting Database shows that there have been more than 160 incidents so far this year.

Before 2021, the number of instances had not surpassed 124. But by 2023, that figure climbed to 351. While the recent attack at Evergreen High School in Colorado is front of mind, Riedman said most shootings are the result of an escalated dispute.

" That really escalated in the late 2010s and then became an even bigger problem post-COVID during the return of both students and community members to the campuses," he said.

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At large, only a small share of K-12 schools report gun-related instances each year, according to Riedman. Among school incidents, part of the issue is that some students live in homes where firearms are easily accessible or not properly secured, he said.

"There are students arrested with guns at schools just about every single day, and they don't have a plan to shoot anyone," Riedman said. "They just carry the gun with them often for either the prestige of having it or for protection because they themselves fear being victimized."

Are politically motivated attacks becoming a bigger threat in the U.S.?

Political violence has been rising over the past decade, according to terrorism and gun violence experts. Joshua Horwitz, the co-director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, said while the issue has existed throughout American history, the recent surge is significant.

"Just in the last 12 months we've seen terrible, terrible examples of political violence," he said. " We've just seen a lot more intimidation lately."

There are a few ways to measure this, but one indicator comes from the U.S. Capitol Police. In 2024, the agency investigated over 9,400 "concerning statements and direct threats" against members of Congress — more than twice the number in 2017.

In a study published on Monday, Wintemute of UC Davis found that while most Americans reject political violence, those who hold harmful beliefs — such as racism, hostile sexism, homonegativity, transphobia, xenophobia, antisemitism, or Islamophobia — are also more likely than others to believe that political violence is justifiable. Support for political violence was even higher among individuals who harbored multiple hateful phobias, according to his survey of over 9,300 adults.

But Wintemute's research also suggests there are small steps that can help curb political violence. In a survey conducted last year, a small number of respondents said they would participate if a civil war broke out. Yet, of that group, about 45% said they would abandon that position if urged by family members.

"  We just need to make sure that those of us who reject it speak as loudly as do those who support it," he added.

How widespread is the issue of gun violence? 

More than 46,000 people died from gun-related injuries in 2023, according to an analysis by Pew Research Center using the latest available data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Gun homicides have declined since 2021, while suicides continue to make up a majority of gun deaths, Pew Research found. But for many Americans, gun violence may hit closer to home than many people expect.

In 2023, Liz Hamel and her team at KFF, a health research group, conducted a survey of more than 1,200 adults across the country about their experiences with gun-related incidents. The survey found that 1 in 5 respondents said they have personally been threatened with a gun, while nearly 1 in 6 said they have personally witnessed a person get shot. Worries about gun violence also affected Black and Hispanic respondents disproportionately.

"We often see national attention to the issue of gun violence in the wake of high-profile events," Hamel said. "What our polling really shows is that experiences with gun-related incidents are more common than you might think among the U.S. population."

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In the survey, 84% of all participants said they have taken at least one precaution to protect themselves against gun violence. The most common step was speaking to loved ones about gun safety. But about a third said they have avoided large crowds or big events. Meanwhile, 3 out of 10 said they have purchased a firearm to protect themselves or their family from gun violence.

Of the people who have a gun in their home, nearly half of participants said a firearm was stored in an unlocked location and more than one-third said a gun was stored loaded. More than half said at least one gun is stored in the same location as the ammunition. Those results suggest the need for more efforts to teach the public about safe gun storage practices, according to Hamel.

"  We do see opportunities for improved awareness around gun safety," she said.

Copyright 2025 NPR

Juliana Kim
Juliana Kim is a weekend reporter for Digital News, where she adds context to the news of the day and brings her enterprise skills to NPR's signature journalism.
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