Democrat Jena Nelson lost a tight race to Republican Stephanie Bice last night for Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District. Nelson likely could have won with the previous district boundaries.
In 2021, Oklahoma lawmakers reconfigured CD-5 by removing the southwestern portion of Oklahoma County and adding portions of the rural Canadian, Logan and Lincoln counties. The decision came three years after Democrat Kendra Horn was elected to represent the district, but Republican officials denied the redistricting effort was partisan.
Last night, Bice received a surplus of votes from those additional rural counties, eventually clinching a 3,000-vote win over Nelson. But if the candidates had run on the previous district map, the results may have been different.
Nelson and her fellow Democrat outperformed their Republican rivals by about 20,000 votes within the old district.
The math
Congressional District 3 now cuts into the southwestern section of Oklahoma County that was originally carved out for CD-5. Democrat Suzie Byrd received 70 percent of the votes there against incumbent Rep. Frank Lucas (19,262 vs. 8,127).
If all else were equal and Byrd's voters went blue under the original map, Nelson would have received 19,262 votes, while Bice would have taken 8,127 additional votes that went to Lucas.
Meanwhile, Bice received a combined 32,675 votes from Canadian, Logan and Lincoln counties. Nelson got 20,658.
In total, Bice would have received around 106,000 votes under the old map, while Nelson would have won with around 126,000.
On Tuesday night, Nelson said she thought the seat was within reach.
"We took a race that they thought they could take for granted and we made them fight for it," Nelson said. "We showed them just how many Oklahomans are ready for change and we brought that change closer than anyone thought possible."
This report was produced by the Oklahoma Public Media Exchange, a collaboration of public media organizations. Help support collaborative journalism by donating at the link at the top of this webpage.
